Why western Sydney looms as a crucial electoral battleground for Dominic Perrottet - Sydney Morning Herald

It didn’t take Dominic Perrottet long to highlight the political importance of western Sydney after becoming Premier. A few sentences into his first public statement in the job, he claimed “the heart” of this government” would be in the city’s west.

Labor leader Chris Minns has also made the western suburbs a priority. From the time he took on the post in June, Minns has spoken repeatedly about the cost of living challenges in the region, especially road tolls.

Then treasurer Dominic Perrottet and Labor leader Chris Minns face off during question time in June.Credit:AAP

Around a quarter of all the seats in NSW Parliament lie in the sprawling suburbs of west and south-western Sydney and many are decided by a relatively small margin of votes. That combination makes the western suburbs the state’s key electoral battleground.

Once considered Labor heartland, the politics of western Sydney has become much more contested during the past three decades. Former Liberal prime minister John Howard won a string of federal seats in the city’s far west and south-west in 1996 and his success gave rise to a new category of voter: Howard’s battlers.

When the NSW Coalition government swept to power in 2011, a clutch of seats in western Sydney switched to the Liberal column and have remained there since.

If the Coalition is to win a historic fourth term at the next state election in March 2023, Mr Perrottet must again defend marginal Liberal electorates in the west. If Labor is to prevail, Mr Minns must snatch back a bag of seats in the region that were lost to the Liberals a decade ago.

“The sheer bulk of marginal seats sitting in west and south-western Sydney will really shape the contest,” said one Labor strategist. “That’s why both sides are running towards it.”

COVID-19 has introduced a fresh element of electoral uncertainty in the city’s west. So far, pandemic politics has been favourable for incumbent governments, especially those perceived to have managed the health crisis effectively. But many consider the NSW government’s decision to impose much harsher lockdowns in parts of west and south-western Sydney than other city regions to be unfair and there has been widespread anger about the strategy. It is unclear how this will affect voter behaviour, but an anti-government backlash is possible. The pandemic has raised the political stakes in the region’s fiercely contested marginal seats.

But COVID-19 is not the only factor shifting political dynamics in western Sydney. In August, the NSW Electoral Districts Redistribution Panel finalised changes to electoral boundaries that will apply at the 2023 state election. This process, called a redistribution, is usually conducted after every two elections to ensure each electorate has a similar number of voters.

Because western Sydney has a rapidly growing population, electoral boundaries in the region typically shift when there is a redistribution, and this time is no different.

WESTERN SYDNEY: KEY SEATS (Electorate and margin)

LIBERAL

East Hills: 0.1 per cent

Penrith: 0.6 per cent

Winston Hills: 5.7 per cent

Holsworthy: 6 per cent

Riverstone: 6.2 per cent

Parramatta: 6.5 per cent

LABOR SEATS

Kogarah: 0.1 per cent

Leppington: 1.5 per cent

Londonderry: 3 per cent

Source: “NSW Parliamentary Research Service”

The ultra-safe Labor seat of Lakemba in the inner south-west has been abolished and a new electorate named Leppington has been created in the city’s far south-west. Based on previous results, this is a marginal Labor seat (with a 1.5 per cent ALP majority, two-party-preferred).

Under the new boundaries, the Liberal-held southern Sydney electorate of Heathcote switches to a marginal Labor seat (with a 1.7 per cent ALP majority based on past results). This means Labor will notionally go into the next election with one additional seat.

The redistribution has also cut the majorities enjoyed by several sitting Liberals in Sydney’s west, making them more vulnerable based on the previous election’s results. In the already ultra-marginal seat of East Hills, for instance, the Liberal Party’s buffer has been reduced from 0.5 per cent to a wafer-thin 0.1 per cent.

New deputy Liberal leader Stuart Ayres, who holds the seat of Penrith, is now on an uncomfortably narrow margin of 0.6 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent at the previous election.

The newly named electorate of Winston Hills (previously Seven Hills) has also slipped into the marginal seat category with a Liberal majority of 5.7 per cent under the new boundaries.

The Liberal-held seats of Holsworthy, Riverstone and Parramatta have also had their buffers reduced.

Some Labor seats in Sydney’s west and south-west have also become more precarious because of the redistribution. The margin in Kogarah, held by Chris Minns, has been cut from 1.8 per cent to just 0.1 per cent while the ALP majority in the seat of Londonderry, held by the party’s deputy Prue Carr, falls from 6.5 per cent to 3 per cent.

Stay across the most crucial developments related to the pandemic with the Coronavirus Update. Sign up to receive the weekly newsletter.

Most Viewed in Politics

Adblock test (Why?)

https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiiwFodHRwczovL3d3dy5zbWguY29tLmF1L3BvbGl0aWNzL25zdy93aHktd2VzdGVybi1zeWRuZXktbG9vbXMtYXMtYS1jcnVjaWFsLWVsZWN0b3JhbC1iYXR0bGVncm91bmQtZm9yLWRvbWluaWMtcGVycm90dGV0LTIwMjExMDA4LXA1OHljNS5odG1s0gGLAWh0dHBzOi8vYW1wLnNtaC5jb20uYXUvcG9saXRpY3MvbnN3L3doeS13ZXN0ZXJuLXN5ZG5leS1sb29tcy1hcy1hLWNydWNpYWwtZWxlY3RvcmFsLWJhdHRsZWdyb3VuZC1mb3ItZG9taW5pYy1wZXJyb3R0ZXQtMjAyMTEwMDgtcDU4eWM1Lmh0bWw?oc=5

2021-10-08 02:36:20Z
52781920163908

Bagikan Berita Ini