Government and health authorities are optimistic NSW can achieve 95 per cent COVID-19 vaccination coverage, as the Premier continues to suggest that figure could be key to the next stage of the state’s reopening.
On Monday, data released by the federal government showed 93.6 per cent of NSW residents aged 16 and over had received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 87.8 per cent were fully vaccinated.
Just 13 council areas in NSW had a full vaccination rate below 80 per cent. Demographers have said some of these results, particularly the City of Sydney and Randwick, were likely an underestimate due to out-of-date population data.
Other areas, such as Byron Shire, had a later uptake: the northern NSW town known for its large anti-vaccination population has a first-dose rate of nearly 85 per cent, suggesting it will hit 80 per cent double-dose by the end of the month. Only the City of Sydney and Edward River in southern NSW reported first-dose rates below 80 per cent.
Restrictions are currently set to ease for unvaccinated people on December 1, seven weeks after fully vaccinated people first re-entered pubs, gyms and others’ homes.
Premier Dominic Perrottet said health authorities were “pretty confident” the state could hit 95 per cent double-dose vaccination of its 16 and over population, following reports the December 1 date could be discarded in favour of a 95 per cent threshold.
Last month, Victoria announced unvaccinated people would not have the same freedoms as people who had received a vaccine until 2023.
Mr Perrottet said the government was “looking at” whether unvaccinated Sydneysiders could be barred from travelling to regional NSW after December 1 and also whether other freedoms could be brought forward for the double-dosed.
“We’ll have a meeting this week where we’ll go through where those opportunities may lie to remove some of these restrictions as quickly as possible,” he told reporters in Dubbo.
At present, the additional December 1 freedoms include unlimited visitors in a household, a move to a two-square-metre capacity for indoor venues and the reopening of nightclubs for dancing.
While current average intervals between first and second doses in NSW suggest the state will hit 95 per cent in the first half of December, researchers who specialise in vaccine attitudes have warned uptake becomes more difficult to predict in a hesitant population.
Professor Emma McBryde, an infectious diseases physician and mathematician who has modelled reopening strategies, said the difference between easing restrictions for the unvaccinated at 95 per cent double-dose coverage or in a month’s time at more than 90 per cent was “pretty marginal”.
“If your threshold is herd immunity we’re not there and we’re not going to be there at 95 per cent,” she said, noting the targets did not include children aged 15 and under.
Travel between Greater Sydney and the regions was allowed to restart for fully vaccinated people on Monday after being delayed by a fortnight due to concern about lower vaccination rates outside the city. The delay allowed 44 regional areas to bring their double-dose rate above 80 per cent.
A fortnightly survey by the Melbourne Institute has recorded falling vaccine hesitancy in NSW since mid-August. On October 21, 5.9 per cent of adults were not willing to be vaccinated.
But the results have become tricky as the state approaches 100 per cent vaccination coverage: while10 per cent of respondents on October 21 were not willing or did not know if they were willing to be vaccinated, more than 92 per cent of the 16 and over population had received a first dose at the time.
Professor Anthony Scott, who runs the survey, said it was possible some people viewed their attitude as distinct from their actions.
“A lot of employers are mandating vaccination now ... causing people who were not ‘willing’ to still get a shot,” he said.
Overall, Professor Scott said the last 10 per cent of vaccine uptake was difficult to predict.
“People are changing their minds,” he said.
On Monday, NSW Health’s Dr Jeremy McAnulty urged anyone who had not yet received a COVID-19 vaccine not to delay in receiving the inoculation, including people who had already had the virus.
NSW reported 135 new local coronavirus cases on Monday, its lowest daily figure since July 22.
The number of people in hospital with COVID-19 in the state is 349. There were 77 virus patients in intensive care on Monday, 65 of whom were not vaccinated.
Four new virus deaths were reported, including a man in his 60s who caught COVID-19 at Parklea jail in Sydney and two residents at Albury’s Mercy Place aged care facility.
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2021-11-01 07:00:00Z
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