It's hard to remember a prime ministerial trip abroad running off the rails quite so spectacularly.
Just six days ago, after touching down in Rome, the Prime Minister was optimistic. He had finally received a call from French President Emmanuel Macron and assured the public the worst of France's fury over the cancelled submarine contract had passed.
We don't know exactly what was said on the call, but Scott Morrison's take was that they had "started the way back" to a more normal relationship. Sure, there was lingering disappointment, but things were looking up.
The following day, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rome, Morrison spotted Macron in the crowd and (with his official photographer on hand) seized the moment.
"I went up and just put my arm on his shoulder", the Prime Minister told reporters. "I said g'day Emmanuel and look forward to catching up over the next couple of days, which I assure you, that's the way these things work".
Morrison described it as a "pleasant and friendly exchange" and repeated things were "on the road back".
As it turns out, the relationship was far from being on a road back. It was on a road from bad to worse. Within 24 hours, the French President would publicly accuse Morrison of being a liar.
So, what happened on that call? Had Macron suddenly changed his tune? Was something lost in translation? Or was Morrison stretching the truth with his talk of an apparent thawing, prompting Macron to reveal how raw his anger remained?
The truth is difficult to discern
It's just one minor curiosity in this whole affair. On the more substantive question — whether the Australian Prime Minister lied to the French President about the submarine contract — the truth is equally difficult to discern.
We know Morrison and Macron had dinner at the Elysee Palace on June 15. We know there was no decision at that stage to cancel the contract. We know Australia's concerns about the changing strategic outlook (ie China) were discussed.
Previously, the Prime Minister has said he raised "serious issues" at the dinner about the capability of a conventional submarine. He's since hardened that recollection to something more definitive. He now says he told Macron a conventional submarine was "not going to meet our strategic interests".
Either way, the message was meant to be clear enough: Macron should have understood where things were heading. The French, by contrast, had a very different interpretation: the conventional submarine option wasn't dead yet. And even if Australia did reach that conclusion, perhaps France's own well-established nuclear submarine, the Barracuda, was an option.
What Morrison didn't tell Macron at that stage was that he had already decided to go with what he regarded to be a far superior option: a submarine using highly enriched uranium, which was only being offered by the US and UK under the yet-to-be-finalised AUKUS partnership.
As that deal wasn't quite done, Morrison was in no position to share the details with anyone.
Extraordinary accusation, extraordinary response
After Macron's furious accusation this week, Morrison could have re-stated that chain of events and left it there. The French would still be furious, but the basic justification of Australia's decision would have been simply repeated.
Instead, Morrison chose not to leave it there. After being labelled a "liar", he decided to hit back. Hard. If Macron's accusation was extraordinary in diplomatic terms, so too was the Morrison response.
First, the Prime Minister dumped on the French failures to deliver the submarines they'd promised. "There were a lot of issues in relation to delays in the project and of course, the costs," according to Morrison. The first submarine, he argued wouldn't hit the water until 2038, making it "obsolete almost the minute it got wet".
That's not what the Defence Department Secretary said just last week. "There was no cost blowout", Greg Moriarty told a parliamentary committee. The contract was terminated "because our requirements have changed, not because of the poor performance by either Naval Group or Lockheed Martin Australia".
Indeed, it's not what Morrison said either when he cancelled the contract in September. When asked specifically if his decision had anything to do with cost blow-outs and delays with the French subs, the Prime Minister said he was "aware of those criticisms, but I don't believe they are at all founded in what is fact".
In fact, Morrison was adamant his decision "in no way reflects in any way, shape or form on the Attack class submarine, the Naval Group and the commitment of the French Government and indeed President Macron personally to this project."
That was before he was called a liar.
Did Biden throw Morrison under the bus?
Even more extraordinary was the leaking of a personal text message from Macron to Morrison. Just two days before the AUKUS announcement, the French President asked, "should I expect good or bad news for our joint submarines ambition?"
The text message suggests Macron had his doubts about the contract, but equally didn't know where Morrison would land. Either way, the leaking of the personal message left many diplomatic observers gobsmacked.
The French Ambassador to Australia called it "an unprecedented new low", telling the National Press Club yesterday other leaders should beware when dealing with Morrison. "What you say in confidence … will eventually be used and weaponised against you one day."
So, should other leaders be wary? Morrison makes no apology for leaking Macron's text message. "Claims had been made and those claims were refuted", he says.
The Prime Minister was yesterday imploring everyone to "move on" and perhaps they soon will. But it's difficult to see much prospect of repair in the relationship while Morrison and Macron are both in power.
The more serious concern in Canberra is arguably US President Joe Biden's willingness to throw Morrison under the bus to repair his own relationship with Macron.
Biden's claim that he had no idea the French weren't in the loop about the submarine deal being ditched has been refuted at all levels by the Morrison government. There was a "no surprises strategy" according to Defence Minister Peter Dutton. The Biden Administration was "kept informed of our every move", he says.
The mixed signals, contradictions and blame shifting about who knew what and when on such a big decision represents a bumpy start to the "forever partnership" of AUKUS.
David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiZmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIxLTExLTA0L2F1a3VzLXN1Ym1hcmluZS1kZWFsLW1vcnJpc29uLW1hY3Jvbi1yZWxhdGlvbnNoaXAtbG93LzEwMDU5MDY3MNIBKGh0dHBzOi8vYW1wLmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvYXJ0aWNsZS8xMDA1OTA2NzA?oc=5
2021-11-03 18:00:00Z
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