Hang in there.
It's the Prime Minister's unofficial three-word slogan as he tries to sell a frustrated and fatigued nation a message of hope: There is light at the end of the tunnel (or outside the COVID cave, to use his analogy).
After a slow and confusing start, the vaccine rollout is finally hitting its straps. 32 per cent of Australians over 16 have now been fully vaccinated, and on current vaccination rates, we're on track to hit 70 per cent in early November — the first key target in the COVID exit strategy.
That is the point at which the states and territories have agreed to move to phase B of the national plan, when we are being promised greater freedoms and fewer lockdowns.
While the agreement is being tested by the New South Wales Delta outbreak, according to the plan fully vaccinated people will be exempt from some restrictions "such as lockdowns and border controls", but beyond that it is not yet clear what life will look like.
On Friday, National Cabinet will start painting a picture.
Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have been asked to come up with a proposal that is likely to include the use of vaccine certificates to give people access to cafes, bars, restaurants and stadiums once that 70 per cent threshold has been reached.
Even before that, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian is promising fully vaccinated people will be allowed to start gathering in small groups again, giving some hints as to what a gradual reopening will look like in the locked-down states.
Ms Berejiklian is firmly backing the national plan, and while Western Australia's Premier Mark McGowan has endorsed it, he has also made it clear he won't do anything that could risk his state's COVID-free status.
"We've actually eliminated the virus and I want to keep it that way," he said.
Queensland's Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has made a similar argument: "You can go to work, you can go to school, you can watch sport, you can go to a restaurant," she said.
"We haven't given up".
ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr is taking a more cautious approach, refusing to move to phase B until 70 per cent of Canberrans aged over 12, not 16, have been fully vaccinated.
There are no certainties in this pandemic, but if those comments and the experience of other countries are anything to go by, Australia's reopening will be patchy and messy and it will almost certainly carry risk.
According to the Doherty Institute, whose modelling underpins the national plan, opening up at 70 per cent vaccine coverage, with partial public health measures, would see about 386.000 COVID cases and 1,460 deaths over six months. But with optimal health measures, cases could be kept to 2,740 and deaths as low as 13.
This is the sort of risk we're being asked to accept in exchange for freedom.
"COVID-19 won't go away but it will be easier to control in the future," the institute said in a statement.
AP: Alberto Pezzali
)How have other countries fared?
Israel, for example, which has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, abolished all COVID restrictions (including mask wearing) in June, and is now battling a Delta outbreak.
Even with 78 per cent of Israelis over 12 vaccinated, the country's recording about 7,500 cases a day, while the number of deaths has reportedly increased from zero in June, before reopening, to around eight a day in August.
The country's now managing to slow the spread by rolling out booster shots, pleading with the million unvaccinated residents to get a jab, and reimposing some restrictions such as caps on gatherings.
In July, the United Kingdom also ditched masks, social distancing and gathering limits when just under 70 per cent of adults had been vaccinated. People are now living freely, although proof of vaccinations is required to enter some venues like nightclubs.
That is the kind of life Australians can expect under phase C of the plan, once 80 per cent of adults have been fully vaccinated.
But since the UK's so-called "freedom day", COVID cases have surged and about 100 people are dying a day — the highest number since March, but well below the 1,000 daily deaths the country was recording in January.
They are numbers few Australians would be willing accept, given the nation has recorded fewer than 1,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic, and states like Western Australia have managed to keep the virus out (and want to keep it that way).
The lesson, according to the Doherty Institute, is that you cannot rely on vaccines alone to protect against COVID-19.
"We've learned from watching countries that have removed all restrictions that there is no 'freedom day'. We will need to keep some public health measures in place," the institute said in a statement this week.
That is the view of National Cabinet — no-one is talking about removing all restrictions once the vaccine targets are met.
"This plan is based on vaccination rates and based on a staged, careful reopening in phase B and phase C at 70 and 80 per cent vaccination rates."
On current vaccination rates, Australia is on track to achieve 70 per cent coverage around the start of November and 80 per cent towards the end of November.
Mr Morrison believes the plan is needed to provide people with hope that once the nation reaches those targets — in just a few months' time — life will become a bit more normal.
But it is becoming increasingly clear that life won't look like it did before the pandemic for a long time, if ever.
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2021-08-26 19:08:41Z
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