Reopening Australia with large numbers of daily COVID-19 cases will still be safe once the country reaches its target of 70 to 80 per cent of the adult population vaccinated, it has been revealed.
The Doherty Institute, whose modelling underlies the national plan to reopen Australia, said the targets remain unchanged after days of political debate between the federal and state governments over the suitability of those targets.
The scientific group released a late-night statement with its director, Sharon Lewin, presenting a “best case” scenario in which an open Australia would result in just 13 deaths.
“In an average year of influenza, we would roughly have 600 deaths and 200,000 cases in Australia. Any death is a tragedy, but our health system can cope with this,” she said.
“In the Covid-19 modelling, opening up at 70 per cent vaccine coverage of the adult population with partial public health measures, we predict 385,983 symptomatic cases and 1457 deaths over six months.
“With optimal public health measures (and no lockdowns), this can be significantly reduced to 2737 infections and 13 deaths,” she said.
“Zero-Covid is no longer the goal once you have 70 to 80 per cent of people vaccinated. Whether you start at 30 cases or 800 cases you can still open up safely.”
“It might seem that these ‘test, trace, isolate and quarantine’ measures aren’t currently working – in New South Wales or Victoria. But they are. They are stopping transmissions and reducing the effective reproduction rate from 5 to closer to 1.3 in New South Wales. These measures will become more effective with more people vaccinated as vaccines also contribute to stopping transmission,” Professor Lewin said. “We are moving towards these targets at a rapid pace, but we need to keep supressing Covid-19 through public health measures while we work towards 70 per cent-80 per cent vaccination across the country. This will ensure we continue to keep the level of hospitalisations and deaths as low as possible to protect the community and prevent our healthcare system from becoming overrun.”
“The team of modellers from across Australia led by the Doherty Institute is now working through the implementation issues specific to the states and territories, specific populations and high risk settings,” she said. “We are moving towards better control of Covid-19 and a more stable future. We encourage everyone to stay vigilant, get vaccinated if you are eligible and take care of each other as we transition to living with Covid-19.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared Australia must move to end the lockdowns once the vaccination rate hits 70 per cent but states like Western Australia say they won’t reopen at that level if there are still hundreds of new daily cases.
NSW, meanwhile, is mulling easing restrictions as it approaches 6 million vaccinations across the state.
“There will be those who will seek to undermine the national plan. There will be those who will seek to undermine confidence in it. I think their motives are clear. But there are also those who may fear it and have concerns. Our goal must be to help people overcome those fears and not give in to them because this can‘t go on forever,” Mr Morrison said.
“We can‘t stay in the cave forever. That’s not sustainable.
“We have to move forward. We cannot hold back. Our task between that day and now is to ensure that we ready ourselves for that next phase,” he said.
“Cases will not be the issue once we get above 70 per cent. Dealing with serious illness, hospitalisation, ICU capabilities, our ability to respond in those circumstances, that will be our goal and we will live with this virus as we live with other infectious diseases.
“That’s what the national plan is all about, was always about, that’s how we designed it.”
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said driving Covid-19 cases down to zero is “completely unrealistic” and some deaths will be an unfortunate consequence of living with the Delta strain.
The Premier has reiterated her promise of freedom once enough of the population is vaccinated, saying that completely suppressing the outbreak will be impossible.
Almost six million people have now received their first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine in NSW, which recorded 818 new cases and three deaths on Monday.
Greater Sydney is in its ninth week of a lockdown that has been extended until the end of September.
Ms Berejiklian said NSW was on track to have fully vaccinated 70 per cent of people over 16 by the end of October and indicated she would lift restrictions then regardless of the number of active cases in the community.
“You do need to see if you can suppress the virus, if you can, and reduce the case numbers but you have to be realistic about it,” she told ABC 7.30 on Monday night.
“To have zero cases, no deaths and get to complete vaccination, that is not the real world.”
said the focus needed to shift from fluctuating case numbers toward vaccination rates.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMi1AFodHRwczovL3d3dy5uZXdzLmNvbS5hdS9saWZlc3R5bGUvaGVhbHRoL2RvaGVydHktaW5zdGl0dXRlLXNheXMtYXVzdHJhbGlhLWNhbi1yZW9wZW4tYXQtNzAtcGVyLWNlbnQtdmFjY2luYXRpb24tY292ZXJhZ2UtZXZlbi1pZi10aGVyZS1hcmUtaHVuZHJlZHMtb2YtZGFpbHktY292aWQtY2FzZXMvbmV3cy1zdG9yeS9lNTc5NmI2ZTI2NzdkNWViMDQ0NDVmZDI2MWFjNjcxM9IB1AFodHRwczovL2FtcC5uZXdzLmNvbS5hdS9saWZlc3R5bGUvaGVhbHRoL2RvaGVydHktaW5zdGl0dXRlLXNheXMtYXVzdHJhbGlhLWNhbi1yZW9wZW4tYXQtNzAtcGVyLWNlbnQtdmFjY2luYXRpb24tY292ZXJhZ2UtZXZlbi1pZi10aGVyZS1hcmUtaHVuZHJlZHMtb2YtZGFpbHktY292aWQtY2FzZXMvbmV3cy1zdG9yeS9lNTc5NmI2ZTI2NzdkNWViMDQ0NDVmZDI2MWFjNjcxMw?oc=5
2021-08-23 14:48:45Z
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