Reopening the country despite high numbers of new infections will be safe when Australia reaches its vaccine target of 70 to 80 per cent, the head of the Doherty Institute says.
Key points:
- Sharon Lewin's comments come after days of differing interpretations of the Doherty Institute's modelling
- She also acknowledged more people would die if restrictions ease while case numbers were still high
- Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said it was "highly unlikely" Australia could ever return to 'COVID-zero'
Speaking on The Drum on Monday night, director Sharon Lewin said the modelling used by the Australian government as a pathway out of the pandemic was not affected by the nation's rising number of new infections.
Professor Lewin said while the modelling was based on an initial outbreak of 30 cases, the increased numbers NSW and Victoria are experiencing do not make a material difference.
"Whether you open up at 30 [cases] or you open up at 800, you will still continue to see numbers escalate," Professor Lewin said.
Her comments come after multiple days of differing interpretations of the Doherty Institute's modelling by state premiers, the federal government and health experts.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has repeatedly called on people in her state to get both doses of the vaccine, citing the Doherty Institute's model for reducing lockdowns.
However, WA Premier Mark McGowan last week said the modelling needed to be reassessed after NSW recorded thousands of new cases.
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While she said the modelling was sound, Professor Lewin also acknowledged more people would die from COVID-19 if states and territories began to ease restrictions and open up while they still had high case numbers.
The modelling found that if restrictions were eased when 70 per cent of the population was vaccinated, 16 people would die from the disease within six months if testing and tracing was also maintained.
"If you open up with more cases, you reach that peak quicker," she said.
"What we're trying to avoid are thousands of deaths or tens of thousands of deaths."
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NSW, meanwhile, is mulling easing restrictions as it approaches 6 million vaccinations across the state.
Ms Berejiklian said the focus needed to shift from fluctuating case numbers toward vaccination rates.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said it was "highly unlikely" Australia could ever return to 'COVID-zero'.
Professor Lewin also said the original modelling did take into consideration the Delta strain and the impact of vaccinating children aged 12 to 15.
"The modelling looked specifically at the benefits on transmission and on hospitalisations and deaths of targeting adults in the range of 16 to 39-year-olds," she said.
"[Vaccination rates] had a very significant impact in reducing transmission, hospitalisations and deaths by getting higher rates in that group.
"The additional benefit from vaccination of 12 to 15-year-olds was much lower. That doesn't mean there's no vaccination of that group, but that can come later and it won't make a big difference to the modelling based on vaccinating eligible adults."
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2021-08-23 19:31:17Z
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