NSW will hit its 6 million COVID-19 vaccination target by the end of the month, but an epidemiologist says this will make little difference to easing lockdown restrictions.
Key points:
- NSW has administered almost 4 million vaccine jabs and will likely hit 6 million by September
- The Federal government yesterday said vaccination rates needed to reach 70 per cent to avoid lockdowns
- Only 14.6 residents in south-west Sydney are fully vaccinated
Yesterday, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said she wanted half the state's adult population — about 6 million people — to have been inoculated by the end of the month.
She flagged some lockdown restrictions in Greater Sydney and its surrounds may be eased if NSW reached that target.
"By the end of August, I'd like to see NSW record 6 million jabs … that gives us additional options as to what life looks like on August 29," Ms Berejiklian said.
NSW has administered almost 4 million doses to date.
The rollout has picked up speed, as more Pfizer doses became available and authorities encourage more people to get the AstraZeneca jab.
While around 30,000 doses a day were being administered in NSW in June, the number has leapt to around 66,000 a day this week.
If the daily doses are maintained at that level, NSW will reach 6 million vaccinations on September 2. This target could be reached as soon as August 31 if the state is able to administer 500,000 doses a week.
Fiona Stanaway, medical doctor and clinical epidemiologist at the University of Sydney, said even if state hits 6 million jabs by August 28 — the date the lockdown is due to end — very little would change.
"But having those numbers below that 70 and 80 per cent mark doesn't really allow you to let transmission happen in the community," she said.
She said more vaccines would mean less people were affected by COVID.
"Absolutely having people vaccinated is a big help ... it stops people getting really sick," Dr Stanaway said.
"It might help us bring cases down faster, particularly when there's targeted vaccinations of people in the suburbs that are most at risk."
Supplied: University of Sydney
)According to data released by the federal government yesterday, only a third of residents in Sydney's south-west have received their first dose and only 14.6 per cent are fully vaccinated.
Comparatively, in North Sydney and Baulkham Hills about half of eligible residents have received their first jab and up to 26.9 per cent are fully vaccinated.
Dr Stanaway said there were several reasons why vaccination rates in the south-west would be lower, including a lower median age which meant many people had only recently become eligible for the jab.
Medical authorities did not recommended AstraZeneca, which is in ample supply compared to Pfizer, to any persons under 60 years due to extremely rare instances of blood clots.
However, political leaders and medical experts — including those from the Australian Medical Association (AMA) — have insisted the AstraZeneca vaccine is safe and necessary for the country to avoid further lockdowns.
The proportion of people aged between 15 and 40 in south-west Sydney is one of the highest in Sydney. Dr Stanaway said that statistic, combined with ineffective messaging, meant it was not surprising vaccination rates in those communities were lagging behind.
Dr Stanaway said the number of COVID cases in NSW were "definitely not looking good because they haven't shifted" over the course of the lockdown.
"I don't think at this point where we're still three-and-a-half weeks out that anyone can really make any kind of reliable prediction," she said.
"I think the big focus should be protecting yourselves from harm and spreading it to your loved ones, not just getting out of lockdown."
Prime Minister Scott Morrison released modelling from the Doherty Institute on Tuesday which showed vaccination rates of 60 to 70 per cent were needed to avoid lockdowns.
Australian Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said those figures were based on national predictions, rather than specific situations in each state.
"What I think what we're seeing in Sydney right now is different to what has been modelled," he said.
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2021-08-03 19:12:58Z
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