Victorian health officials and senior ministers have met overnight and will meet again today to discuss the end of the state's fifth lockdown.
Initially slated for five days, the restrictions stretched to another week as the Delta variant of coronavirus spread in the community.
Premier Daniel Andrews yesterday said the state was "well-placed" to have the lockdown lift, but the "dynamic" situation may mean things rapidly change.
"We'll try and give people as much notice as we can, and that means though that we've got to strike that difficult balance between waiting for as much information as possible and giving people as many hours' notice as we can," he said.
Here's what we know so far.
Whether cases were in the community is key
The daily numbers are one thing, but even more important than the total amount of cases is whether those testing positive have been in quarantine for their infectious period.
If they were in the community while possibly carrying the virus, that would mean a lot more unknowns for contact tracers and decision-makers.
So while the 11 new cases reported yesterday may not sound great on first glance, they were all linked to known infections and in quarantine.
"Today is essentially a zero day because everybody who tested positive was locked away in iso for 100 per cent of the time they were a risk to public health," Mr Andrews said on Sunday.
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said over the weekend the number of infectious cases in the community would need to be "really minimal, and hopefully zero" to confidently end the lockdown.
Testing numbers will need to remain high to give contact tracers confidence there is not undetected transmission in the community.
Test results from big exposure sites might have an impact
ABC News: Peter Drought
)Mr Andrews was asked what some of the factors would be in determining the path out of the lockdown.
"There are a number of tests that are outstanding, whether they be day 13 tests of people clearing through iso as a close contact, or other tests that are outstanding from exposure sites … we'll look at all of those," Mr Andrews said.
More than 22,000 primary close contacts have been identified throughout the outbreak.
In recent days, two big exposure sites with lots of potential close contacts have emerged — the Prahran Market in Melbourne's inner south-east and the LaCrosse apartment building in Docklands.
The LaCrosse building was upgraded to a tier 1 site, meaning the entire apartment block is in lockdown for 14 days or until it is downgraded.
"Out of an abundance of caution, at this point in time, the whole site's a tier 1 exposure site … we're determined not to let it get away again," Mr Weimar said.
The positive case who lives in the building left their apartment five times during their infectious period — to take out some rubbish, get food, let a neighbour in and to be tested twice.
ABC News: Daryl Torpy
)Thousands of people linked to the Carlton-Geelong game at the MCG on July 10 and the Wallabies-France game at AAMI Park on July 13 are being released from quarantine.
To be released into the community, people need to both return a negative day-13 test and receive correspondence from the department of health.
It's worth noting that a test at the start of the 14-day quarantine period is not mandatory. It is only if people refuse a day 13 test that they are required to quarantine for a further 14 days.
Mr Weimar said there had been "phenomenal levels of compliance" with people isolating and getting tested.
The anti-lockdown rally is being watched closely
In condemning the thousands of mostly maskless anti-lockdown protesters who took to Melbourne CBD on Saturday, authorities expressed concern it could see the lockdown extended.
Mr Andrews said it was promising that most of the recent cases detected have been in isolation for their infectious period, meaning there is less chance of it spreading undetected in the community.
"We'll be guided by the test results that come in tomorrow [Monday] and Tuesday, regardless of where people got it," he said.
"I can't tell you what's going to come out of that protest. I wish it hadn't happened. The people that were involved potentially have put things at risk, but let's just push on.
"We're going to get to midnight Tuesday where hopefully rules will be eased."
An announcement will likely be for the whole state
The way out of many of the state's lockdowns has been different in regional Victoria and Melbourne, with the metropolitan area often holding onto tighter restrictions for longer.
The whole state has been living under the same tough stage 4 restrictions this time around.
"It is my hope that we can, well ahead of Tuesday hopefully, make announcements for the whole state and have settings that apply to the whole state," Mr Andrews said.
Be prepared to keep your mask on
For a state leaving its third lockdown of 2021, the first round of eased restrictions are likely to follow a similar pattern.
Masks are almost certain to remain mandatory indoors, and possibly in outdoor settings.
ABC Mildura-Swan Hill: Jennifer Douglas
)"I think masks are going to be a feature from now until we get the maximum number of people through the vaccine program ," Mr Andrews said.
The Premier flagged his aim was to have the five reasons to leave home lifted and for "people to have a much greater freedom of movement".
"We want to get kids back to school," he said.
After the fourth lockdown ended — less than two months ago — severe restrictions like a 25-kilometre radius and a ban on home visitors remained in place.
A month of gradual easing followed, but the state had not yet returned to the "COVID-normal" settings of early May before the next lockdown was called.
Not for the first time, people are questioning when they can go back to work or school, open their business again, see their loved ones or travel further from home.
As always, the epidemiology of the next 24-48 hours will be the only thing to deliver an answer.
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2021-07-25 14:09:20Z
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