Anthony Albanese's COVID-19 diagnosis has thrown Labor's plans into disarray.
It's not that this moment hasn't been prepared for — it has and in many ways it was inevitable — but what happens next is totally unpredictable.
In our push to be free of COVID-19, all too easily we forget that this is a deadly virus.
Albanese last night, in announcing his positive diagnosis, said he was in good health and would carry out his duties from home.
All sides of politics hope that remains. But try as Albanese might to carry out press conferences from home — think Joe Biden in his campaign bunker in 2020 — there is only so much the Labor leader will be able to do.
The pressure now falls to his frontbench to stump up and carry the weight of the Labor movement in his absence.
The pressure is on his colleagues
If a criticism of Albanese was that no one knew who he was, imagine the pressure his deputy now faces.
Richard Marles, while Labor's deputy leader, lacks the star power that some on the frontbench muster — the likes of Tanya Plibersek, Penny Wong and Jim Chalmers.
Last week's gaffes and stumbles from Albanese had some in Labor joking that him getting COVID-19 might help their cause.
Sidelining the leader, while allowing more familiar and charismatic Labor frontbenchers to lead the campaign, might well serve the opposition. Some again repeated this sentiment last night.
An insight into just how effective Wong and Chalmers can be came earlier this week when they set about pulverising the Coalition on everything from failures in the Pacific to scare campaigns that Labor's election would send electricity prices skyrocketing.
Labor MPs last night told the ABC that the diagnosis would undoubtedly have an impact on the campaign but to what extent remained unclear.
What comes next?
Strategists have long been wargaming this moment, and they spent the night mapping their next course of action.
Albanese was meant to fly to WA this morning, a week ahead of officially launching his campaign in Perth next Sunday.
It's often said in politics that it's not those who sit opposite you but behind you that you need to worry about.
It's in that spirit that you can guarantee notes will be taken within Labor on who steps forward in the coming days.
Sources in the party last week told the ABC that positioning was already underway for who would take over Labor should it lose its fourth consecutive election.
Some might be reluctant to step forward, fearing they will carry some of the blame for a loss. Others might well wonder if their personal careers are better served by losing and then leading Labor after an election.
A silver lining for Albanese is that Morrison called a six-week campaign, meaning he'll have another three weeks after his isolation period to press the flesh with punters.
Imagine the panic that might have set in if it was a five-week campaign. Having lost their way in week one, losing another week to COVID might have been politically fatal.
It's not without implications for Morrison
There's never a good time to get COVID-19.
But there were some in Prime Minister Scott Morrison's camp who were relieved their leader contracted the virus in the months before the election.
They hoped it would mean he could barnstorm the country with bolstered immunity, shaking hands and kissing babies from coast to coast.
Morrison will be continuing this next week, capitalising on Albanese's time away from the cameras.
Once he's released from the shackles of COVID-19, expect Albanese to spend every second campaigning, with a renewed vigour that can only come from knowing you're unlikely to contract the virus again before May 21.
Albanese's diagnosis will also force a recalibration for Morrison.
He's spent months seeking to lambaste the Labor leader — this will likely need to be dampened while his political opponent is sick.
But don't for a second think Morrison will go easy on Labor. The hits he would have otherwise aimed at Albanese will be sent in the direction of the broader Labor movement and the frontbenchers who step forward in Albanese's absence.
What this all means when people cast their votes remains unknown.
Labor will be taking this hour by hour, day by day because if there's one thing the coronavirus pandemic has taught us, no one knows what's to come.
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2022-04-21 18:38:21Z
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