Victoria has passed the peak of its second wave of coronavirus, modelling suggests, and new case numbers are expected to drop over the next week if Victorians remain vigilant.
Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton said on Saturday that for the first time since June, every positive COVID-19 case in Victoria was infecting less than one other person on average.
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said Victoria's position had improved but the public must stay vigilant.Credit:Justin McManus
After 466 new cases and 12 more deaths on Saturday, Professor Sutton said the state's effective reproduction rate was about 0.9, meaning every 10 cases will infect nine others on average.
Coupled with stage four restrictions introduced in Melbourne last week, he said Victoria should soon push down its seven-day average of 520 cases a day.
"I think we're headed in the right direction," Professor Sutton said. "That 0.9 [reproduction rate] really needs to be 0.5. I think stage four restrictions will head us in that direction. How far we can get is a matter for all of us as community members and our behaviours."
Professor James McCaw, an epidemiologist from the Doherty Institute whose team prepares the state government's modelling, said Victoria was in its most promising position since its second wave began in late June.
"We believe we've got to that turning point and we're on our way to a better place," Professor McCaw told The Age.
Doherty Institute epidemiologist Professor James McCaw, whose department prepares government modelling.
"We saw continued improvements in the public's compliance with stage three restrictions and there are early signs of really good compliance with stage four. I'm confident we are just past the peak or right on it, but there's a long way to go. If you take your foot off the accelerator for a second you come to a halt with this virus."
Professor McCaw said the full impact of stage four restrictions would likely show over the next 10 days, after an 8pm curfew and five-kilometre movement restriction were imposed in Melbourne last Sunday.
Tighter limits on workplaces took effect over the week. Mitchell Shire remained on stage three restrictions, while the rest of regional Victoria re-entered stage three restrictions on Thursday.
Premier Daniel Andrews announced 12 deaths on Saturday, including a man in his 30s.Credit:Justin McManus
A man in his 30s and six aged care residents were among 12 deaths on Saturday, taking Victoria's total to 193. Premier Daniel Andrews said he was unable to provide details on the man beyond confirming he was not a healthcare worker.
Healthcare workers contributed 140 of Saturday's 466 new infections and make up about one in eight of Victoria's 7808 active cases.
With stage four restrictions in place until at least September 13, federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg called on Mr Andrews to contribute more to Victoria's economic recovery. He said the federal government had committed $314 billion in response to the pandemic nationwide, compared to $45 billion from all states and territories.
"The states can do more, and the states do need to do more, including here in Victoria," said Mr Frydenberg.
"They have the balance sheet strength to do so, whether it's with infrastructure and bringing forward projects as we have with $10 billion of infrastructure projects."
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg speaking in Hawthorn on Saturday.Credit:Luis Ascui
After Mr Andrews on Saturday said revelations in The Age that the government had hired security guards under a "social inclusion" policy were inaccurate but refused to elaborate, Mr Frydenberg said Victorians deserved answers on the state's botched hotel quarantine program.
"There needs to be accountability, there needs to be an explanation," the Treasurer said on Saturday afternoon.
Victoria's "mystery cases" of COVID-19 with an unknown source - the most concerning form of transmission for health officials - grew by 130 on Saturday, bringing the total since last Saturday to 743.
Professor Sutton said those community transmission cases remained a concern but had reduced from a peak of 26 per cent of cases in mid-July to about 17 per cent of Victoria's cases at the moment, suggesting tighter restrictions were working.
Professor McCaw said anonymous data from Facebook, Google and Apple showed that thanks to stage four restrictions, residents in Melbourne had only this week reduced their movement to similar levels as stage three restrictions in March. He said that indicated Victorians were not fully adhering to stage three rules in July's second wave.
"It's not surprising," Professor McCaw said. "There's no blame, it's just a fact: if you ask people to do the same thing twice, the population won't respond as well because we're fatigued, we're stressed."
Professor McCaw added that Victoria would build momentum if it pushed down new cases in the next 10 days because the state's overwhelmed team of 2000 contact tracers would be able to improve its efficiency.
Meanwhile, Mr Andrews asked for patience among parents after the government relaxed rules on childcare late on Friday and confirmed households with just one permitted worker could access childcare if there was nobody else at home who could look after the child.
"This has never been done before, it could not be made perfect," the Premier said. "I truly appreciate that this will be very, very challenging for a lot of families but we've tried to strike the best balance."
The Victorian government also announced on Saturday that it would invest $1.6 million to make kindergarten in Victoria free for term three and support online resources for children learning from home.
Michael is a state political reporter for The Age.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMihgFodHRwczovL3d3dy50aGVhZ2UuY29tLmF1L25hdGlvbmFsL3ZpY3RvcmlhL3JpZ2h0LWRpcmVjdGlvbi12aWN0b3JpYS1hcHBlYXJzLXBhc3QtcGVhay1vZi1zZWNvbmQtd2F2ZS1leHBlcnRzLXNheS0yMDIwMDgwOC1wNTVqdmYuaHRtbNIBhgFodHRwczovL2FtcC50aGVhZ2UuY29tLmF1L25hdGlvbmFsL3ZpY3RvcmlhL3JpZ2h0LWRpcmVjdGlvbi12aWN0b3JpYS1hcHBlYXJzLXBhc3QtcGVhay1vZi1zZWNvbmQtd2F2ZS1leHBlcnRzLXNheS0yMDIwMDgwOC1wNTVqdmYuaHRtbA?oc=5
2020-08-08 07:58:00Z
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