Coronavirus testing rates have dropped in Victoria.
Key points:
- Last week, there were about 30,000 fewer tests in Victoria than the previous week
- Experts say it could be a logical decrease due to fewer people showing symptoms
- The Premier wants to keep testing rates high to re-open with confidence
The number of people coming forward to get tested has declined by 17 per cent in a week, amounting to almost 30,000 fewer tests.
While that could indicate fewer people experiencing symptoms in the community, there are also concerns that fewer tests could mean we don't have an accurate picture of how widespread the virus is.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has urged people to continue to get tested, saying confidence in the data is vital to getting a "complete picture" and easing stage 4 restrictions.
"Get tested. Don't wait a day, don't wait two days, don't wait for your symptoms to get worse — that can be a time when you're very, very infectious," Mr Andrews said on Tuesday.
The Premier said yesterday there had been a little over 16,000 tests in the past 24 hours, down from an average of 20,000 a day. At its peak, the state saw around 30,000 tested in a single day.
What's spurring the drop?
As cases decline, Mr Andrews said it was logical to see less testing, "but not this much less".
"The number of symptomatic people will drive the test numbers, so ultimately you'd get to a point where the test numbers are quite low," he said.
"And that would be a wholly good thing because that, in itself, would be reflective of how much virus is out there. But I don't think we're at that stage yet."
But Jodie McVernon, director of epidemiology at the Doherty Institute, said it was important to reflect on the "extraordinary" baseline of testing in Victoria over several weeks.
"Given where we are now — we're in stage 4, we expect less people to get infected with anything or have any symptoms of a respiratory infection.
"So we expect the symptomatics to be down, and people aren't out and about, so those opportunistic tests are less likely to happen."
Another factor, she added, was that it was recommended that all elective surgery patients be tested prior to admission, but in late July all but the most urgent elective surgeries were suspended.
"Elective surgery numbers are down, and that's going to be a downturn in testing," she said. "There are some other logical reasons why those numbers might be down right now."
Infectious diseases epidemiologist Meru Sheel said it was difficult to attribute the decrease to a single cause.
She said there could be some degree of testing fatigue, and she hoped the requirement to isolate after getting tested wasn't a deterrent.
"It could be because people are feeling fatigued and may not be coming to get tested," she told the ABC's Afternoon Briefing on Tuesday.
"Hopefully they're not feeling that this is going to affect their everyday movements and whereabouts.
She said she hoped people with even the mildest symptoms came forward for testing.
Criteria not extended to people without symptoms
The Premier, and Victoria's Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton, said the testing criteria was already very broad — as mild as a scratchy throat or a runny nose.
While some asymptomatic people in the community might want to get a test for peace of mind, Professor Sutton said the focus was on people who showed symptoms.
"So that is a lot of tests that we have to do to find a true case. We really want to focus on people who have symptoms, except when we know there is a much greater probability that someone will be a true case — in an aged care outbreak [or] in a meatworks outbreak."
Dr McVernon said the main priority, from a public health perspective, was to get to people who needed a test, not simply test more people who didn't need it.
"People having tests for no reason is actually not a good use of that resource."
The Premier added he didn't think the lower numbers were being driven by asymptomatic people showing up for testing and being turned away.
Professor Sutton urged people to get tested at even the beginning of a mild cough.
A $450 payment is available for people who have to isolate after getting tested, if they don't have sick leave to fall back on.
The payment is designed to prevent sick people going to work and spreading the virus due to financial pressure, and was increased from $300 last week.
Mr Andrews said that payment had been granted to 19,500 Victorians, at a cost of $6.5 million.
Dr McVernon said the pandemic had highlighted how important the social sciences were in understanding human behaviour that had enabled the virus to spread, whether people were motivated by work, financial or other pressures.
"I think people make decisions for all sorts of complex reasons," Dr McVernon said.
"Those sorts of nuances and insights are actually really important. I think there's been much more of a focus on community engagement in the Victorian response in recent weeks and months."
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiZGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIwLTA4LTIwL3ZpY3RvcmlhLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLXRlc3RpbmctcmF0ZXMtZG93bi1pbi10aGUtc3RhdGUvMTI1NzM4MDbSASdodHRwczovL2FtcC5hYmMubmV0LmF1L2FydGljbGUvMTI1NzM4MDY?oc=5
2020-08-19 20:43:00Z
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