Wind your mind back to early February.
A time when most of Europe and the US — still hibernating in a long, bitter pandemic winter — were well into rolling out their respective vaccine programs.
In a big announcement, Health Minister Greg Hunt said the government — which at the time was still three weeks away from conducting its first jab — had worked “quietly, behind the scenes” to secure an extra "10 million doses" of the Pfizer vaccine.
It was, and still is, one of the most highly effective and most sought-after vaccines worldwide.
"We now have access to over 150 million vaccine doses, ensuring we remain a world leader in the fight against the virus," Mr Hunt said at the time.
"It's enough to vaccinate every Australian three times over."
Fast forward to today, and rather than an oversupply, it has become a mad scramble to access vaccines, with the government falling 3.4 million inoculations short of its own end-of-March target.
GPs have been left with empty vaccine fridges, with many only allocated 50 vaccines a week in the early stages.
Supplied
)There have been major delays in accessing vaccines, a tit-for-tat between the federal government and the states, a lack of information of where the country is at and confusion on how to book to get the jab.
Yet, according to Mr Hunt, the national vaccine program is "accelerating exactly as intended in the manner that was intended at the time it was intended”.
So what is actually going on?
Twitter: Anna Davidson
)CSL, the Australian company manufacturing the AstraZeneca vaccine, has been feverishly working behind the scenes to fill the void created by European supply chain issues; a major cause — but not the only one — of the slow start to the rollout.
A spokeswoman for CSL said about 830,000 doses went out the door last week, with a further 2.5 million doses in cold storage.
The bulk of that 830,000 has now been distributed across the country, and led to Australia's "record day for vaccinations" during the week, with more than 70,000 jabs carried out.
Yet it is well short of the 200,000 doses-a-day target most experts say the country needs to reach the October deadline.
CSL said the numbers it manufactures would vary "week to week" but it expected to release an average of a million doses a week over the course of the vaccination campaign.
Supplied: CSL
)It said it was looking to increase capacity beyond that number.
"We are working around the clock to provide vaccines to the Australian public and are proud to have been able to release locally made doses of a new vaccine in just four months since beginning manufacture," the company said.
Now, it seems, Australia is almost solely reliant on that local manufacturing to inoculate the population, and that's without even mentioning Pacific neighbours such as Papua New Guinea calling for 1 million vaccines to help it through its own vicious outbreak.
It begs the question: where are all the other vaccines we were promised?
"We're trying to immunise the whole world at once," Professor Tony Cunningham, from Sydney's Westmead Institute, said.
"I think people need to be mindful of that. It's not easy.
ABC News: Chris Taylor
)"I think in a couple months' time when the doses are flowing from CSL, we will have forgotten about this — as long as we don't get any hiccups from rare side effects seen in the AstraZeneca vaccine.
"But I am surprised by the European response [in restricting overseas imports], it's very strange," he said.
Professor Cunningham, a vaccine expert with more than four decades of experience, said the only equivalent scenario for vaccine manufacturing was in 2009 during the Swine Flu influenza pandemic.
"And during that pandemic we had to scale up rapidly to produce 90 million vaccines — this time it's in the billions," he said.
He said it highlighted how "sovereign capacity" of vaccine manufacturing had never been more important.
Australia only has capability for local manufacturing through CSL. And although the company was already aligned as the government's pandemic partner, vaccine experts almost universally agree it has been — and will continue to be — the critical element in Australia's vaccine rollout plan.
Professor Cunningham confirmed he and other vaccine experts have been in discussion with Health Department secretary Brendan Murphy about the development of mRNA manufacturing technology in Australia that would enable local manufacturing of vaccines such as Pfizer's, which is currently being imported into the country.
So, what is happening with Pfizer?
Supply of the Pfizer vaccine, which is essentially reserved for frontline healthcare workers, the elderly and hotel quarantine workers involved in phase 1a of the rollout, has been coming from Europe.
A Health Department spokesperson confirmed the government had so far received 1 million Pfizer vaccine doses.
When asked how much is expected in April or May, the spokesperson said "[we] are expecting to receive a total of 20 million doses over the course of 2021".
So either it does not know, or just won't reveal it.
Getty Images
)"To date over 2.4 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been received by the Australian government," the spokesperson said.
"As new shipments of Pfizer and onshore-manufactured AstraZeneca are made available, they will be provided across Australia to vaccinate the population in line with the rollout plan."
And Novavax?
The Australian government has signed a deal with Novavax for 51 million doses of its vaccine, with supply originally slated for "mid-2021".
In the UK, Novavax will be manufactured locally. But in Australia it will need to be imported because of a lack of vaccine manufacturers.
However, there are no guarantees of supply for Australia. A company spokesman told the ABC: "At the present time, Novavax are not specifying which of their global manufacturing locations will supply the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine".
Interim results from its phase 3 clinical trials suggest the vaccine has 95.6 per cent efficacy against COVID-19, and an 86.3 per cent efficacy against the variant identified in the UK.
This is likely to be the next vaccine to be approved in Australia, with the TGA currently evaluating its early data. The vaccine is also being evaluated by the New Zealand government.
What about Johnson & Johnson?
The company has applied to the Therapeutic Goods Administration for provisional registration of its vaccine in Australia.
But the Australian government has not confirmed any deals with the company — yet.
"The World Health Organization think it's a very good vaccine," Professor Cunningham said.
"They think that it's also ideal for the developing world because it's one shot. And you're getting high efficacy and it's easily reachable."
Professor Cunningham says it is likely many other vaccines will emerge over the coming years as the virus evolves, and he urges the public to be patient.
"Remember that six months ago we weren't even sure we would have a vaccine, so where we are now is really quite extraordinary."
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2021-04-03 19:10:33Z
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