NSW is in the “red zone” in its fight against coronavirus, with an expert warning the situation could soon spiral out of control.
Professor Mary-Louise McLaws, an epidemiologist and adviser to the World Health Organisation, says the state’s situation is concerning after it recorded more than 150 COVID-19 cases over the past 14 days.
Writing in The Conversation, she said a state’s progress can be determined by looking at rolling 14-day cumulative cases, which represents roughly two incubation periods.
“My analysis of the data suggests when cases reach 100 over 14 days – the “red zone” – then an outbreak becomes very difficult to control. This happened in Victoria on June 18, before cases skyrocketed and a second lockdown was called for July 8,” she said.
“Over the last fortnight, NSW has recorded at least 154 new cases (minus international arrives in quarantine), which is very concerning.”
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She said a key worry is that cases in NSW are very spread out, ranging from the inner city to Harris Park in the city’s west, to Bateman’s Bay several hundred kilometres south.
This rules out “ring-fencing” – a strategy to enforce stricter measures in a specific hotspot to keep the virus from spreading to the wider community – as an option for NSW.
Prof McLaws has pushed for authorities to strongly encourage face coverings on public transport.
“Masks have been shown to offer protection against both getting and spreading the virus,” she said.
She also called for additional infection control measures in aged care.
“We can see the devastating impact of COVID-19 spread currently occurring in some aged care homes in Victoria. All staff should be wearing face masks or shields, and should be tested regularly for COVID-19, both of which are cost-effective control methods.”
There was, however, one note of optimism: “One cause for hope is that rates of community transmission where the source of infection is unknown appear to be relatively low, though some cases are still under investigation.”
Victoria revealed new restrictions, following a record number of new cases and deaths on Thursday, including mandatory face coverings in regional Victoria, as well as metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire.
“Today, and in line with the advice of the Chief Health Officer, I can announce that same requirement will apply across regional Victoria,” Premier Daniel Andrews said in a statement.
“That means from Sunday 2 August at 11:59pm, a face covering will be mandatory whenever you leave home – and wherever you live.
“I understand this will a big step for some. But by covering your face, you’re protecting your community, and protecting those extra freedoms your community enjoys.
“By covering your face, you’re keeping local businesses open, and keeping local people in work.”
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMipgFodHRwczovL3d3dy5uZXdzLmNvbS5hdS9saWZlc3R5bGUvaGVhbHRoL2hlYWx0aC1wcm9ibGVtcy9jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1uc3ctaW4tdGhlLXJlZC16b25lLXdpdGgtbmV3LXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLWV4cGVydC13YXJucy9uZXdzLXN0b3J5Lzg3YTFhODI3M2VmNWQzMTY1YzFkMGFhZmFjYWZmMThk0gGmAWh0dHBzOi8vYW1wLm5ld3MuY29tLmF1L2xpZmVzdHlsZS9oZWFsdGgvaGVhbHRoLXByb2JsZW1zL2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzLW5zdy1pbi10aGUtcmVkLXpvbmUtd2l0aC1uZXctdmlydXMtY2FzZXMtZXhwZXJ0LXdhcm5zL25ld3Mtc3RvcnkvODdhMWE4MjczZWY1ZDMxNjVjMWQwYWFmYWNhZmYxOGQ?oc=5
2020-07-30 02:16:31Z
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