In one week 57 people in Victoria have died from the coronavirus — doubling the state’s death toll in just seven days.
More than 10,000 Victorians have now been diagnosed with COVID-19 and there have been 112 deaths. Authorities are struggling to contain dozens of outbreaks including more than 80 within the aged care sector alone.
As the state’s lockdown hit the halfway mark, the results were not as positive as many had hoped.
In just the last week, the number of coronavirus cases jumped by more than 2800 — from 7744 last Saturday, to 10,577 cases on Friday.
Experts have cautioned against reading too much into daily numbers and suggest that the figures have plateaued, if not come down.
But there is increasing concern that what the state is doing is not working to decrease case numbers.
Many experts already predict the state’s six-week lockdown will need to be extended.
Premier Daniel Andrews told reporters on Friday that authorities were considering further measures to get the numbers under control.
“We have avoided our hospital system being completely overrun but we’re not seeing those numbers fall sufficiently to be able to bring an end to the restrictions,” Mr Andrews said.
There had been hope earlier in the week that Victoria had turned a corner as daily cases dipped below 300 but this was shattered when the state revealed a new record of 723 cases on Thursday, followed by 627 on Friday.
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CRISIS IN AGED CARE SECTOR
Driving many of the new cases are large outbreaks spread mainly across Melbourne including a devastating crisis in the aged care sector that has impacted more than 80 facilities and is linked to 928 active cases. Many of those who died this week were former residents of these facilities.
The aged care issue became so concerning, Prime Minister Scott Morrison cut short his Queensland trip on Tuesday and returned to Canberra to engage with the problem this week.
Victoria also suspended some elective surgery procedures to free up medical staff to assist aged care services.
The situation was described by one expert as a “fiasco” that should not have happened.
“The magnitude of this balls-up is amazing,” Melbourne University Professor Tony Blakely told news.com.au.
Prof Blakely was scathing about the aged care outbreak and said more should have been done earlier to prevent the crisis.
Precautions such as not allowing staff to work across different sites and for them to be trained properly in infection control should have been taken.
“It’s so bad and so sad, it’s just ridiculous,” Prof Blakely said.
“Frankly people need to be held accountable for this, it’s as bad as the hotel quarantine situation. It’s the state’s second big fiasco and it should not have happened.”
There are also concerns about the high number of cases among healthcare workers, with two doctors now in intensive care, according to The Age. More than 1000 healthcare workers have been infected with the virus since the pandemic began and authorities are investigating how they are being infected.
“It’s a huge concern to see healthcare workers are developing illness,” Prof Sutton said.
“It is not always straightforward to understand how they have acquired their illness. We have to be open to the fact that personal protective equipment may or may not work.”
VICTORIA’S HOTSPOTS FOR CASES
Victoria’s chief health officer Brett Sutton said significant transmission was occurring among essential workers including aged care, healthcare, meatworks, large warehouse and distribution centres as well as food production and distribution.
“That’s where we are seeing numbers for sure,” Prof Sutton told reporters on Friday.
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Three aged care facilities have been linked to more than 100 cases including St Basil’s, Epping Gardens and Estia Aged Care Facility in Ardeer.
Several meatworks have also recorded a significant number of cases including Bertocchi Smallgoods in Thomastown, which is linked to 134 cases, and Cedar Meats, which is also linked to more than 100 cases.
Al-Taqwa College is now linked to 184 cases and there are 311 cases linked to residents of various public housing towers in North Melbourne and Flemington.
‘WE MAY NEED TO TAKE FURTHER STEPS’
Premier Andrews pointed to the possibility of further restrictions and even a longer lockdown but said he would have more to say about “next steps” once experts had completed an analysis of recent cases. An announcement could be made as early as Sunday.
“We have community transmission that is too high and we need to do that detailed analysis and potentially take further steps beyond the current framework,” he said.
Focus will now turn to other workplaces where transmission could be taking place but where cases are less visible, possibly because there aren’t explosive numbers of infections, or there is a young workforce who only experience a mild illness.
In order to uncover the extent of the problem Victorian authorities will work with Commonwealth experts on a “deep dive” of the state’s numbers to try and find less obvious trends.
Premier Andrews said on Friday public health experts would spend the next day or so analysing the data and identifying the exact nature of the challenge.
“It is important that all of us acknowledge that these numbers are still far too high and we could not open up with these numbers, we could not open up, even with significantly less than these numbers,” he said
“So it may well be … that we need to take further steps.
“The steps we’ve taken are not enough to pull this up.”
‘MYSTERY CASES’ MAY BE SLEEPER ISSUE
One area of concern that may ultimately decide whether Victorians face harsher restrictions and a longer lockdown are the cases of community transmission, where authorities can’t find the source of an infection.
These figures have been obscured this week due to huge numbers of cases linked to known hotspots. But on Friday, Prof Sutton confirmed these cases were also going up, which suggests more lockdown restrictions may have to be introduced.
It was hoped the mandatory mask order, which will be extended to apply to all of Victoria from Monday, would drive down cases of community transmission.
But Prof Sutton said cases of community transmission had grown over recent days, even though they were still a minority of total daily cases.
In total, there are currently 1792 cases that authorities can’t find a source for, and 94 of the 627 new cases reported on Friday were linked to community transmission.
Community transmission is a key area that will determine when lockdown is lifted, with the Prime Minister confirming recently that Australia’s coronavirus strategy was aiming for “no community transmission”.
If these cases are still rising despite the stay-at-home orders and the use of masks, Victorian authorities may have no option but to introduce stage 4 restrictions.
“Community transmission cases are a concern and they are the ones that are addressed through the physical distancing (and) the restrictions that we’ve got with stage 3,” Prof Sutton said.
In a worrying sign, on Friday it was revealed that one in four people doorknocked by the Australian Defence Force this week were not at home despite testing positive for the coronavirus.
Premier Andrews said the factors driving the increase in new cases included the spread in workplaces, people not staying home while waiting for a test result, and “disturbing” reports of people going about their business even though they knew they were infected.
“Together with the fact that once you’ve got significant community transmission, then those mystery cases, they grow and grow,” he said.
SPECIFIC INDUSTRIES COULD BE TARGETED
Experts have previously recommended that Victoria narrow the definition of “essential worker” to get case numbers down without going into a stricter lockdown.
“We need to reduce the virus transmitting through these people, by either limiting their number or doing ‘essential work’ much smarter,” Melbourne University Professor Tony Blakely told news.com.au.
For example, Prof Blakely said shutting down the construction industry for a couple of weeks could help get case numbers down faster. Retail stores like Bunnings could be forced to close and other sectors including Uber drivers could be targeted.
He has also recommended that cases among workers in certain industries (such as Uber, taxis and bus drivers) should be grouped together so authorities could easily see if outbreaks were happening.
Prof Blakely believes a surveillance system with better information on cases in individual sectors should be developed and this data should also be provided to the community.
Workplaces also needed to review their practices to minimise contact as even if sick employees didn’t come to work, there would still be some asymptomatic people who could spread the virus before they realised they were ill.
Prof Blakely said a full-blown system design response in workplaces should be done.
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For example if truck drivers, who drive to many different areas, were arriving at a distribution centre and socialising with other drivers or staff, then measures should be put in place to stop this from happening.
“It’s a matter of looking at the flow of people in the system and how they bump into each other,” he said.
Prof Blakely said control of these workplace outbreaks came back down to how businesses were separating their staff to minimise contact between people as well as mask wearing.
“All levels of management need to feel empowered to look at their environment and identify the risks,” he said. “They need to feel empowered to act, don’t wait to be told.”
The management of workplace systems is especially important as it’s unlikely that truly essential sectors such as meat processing would be closed down.
WHY AREN’T WE GOING TO STAGE 4 NOW?
Some experts have already called for Victoria to go to stage 4 restrictions but Premier Andrews said the state would follow medical advice.
“Over the last six months, many people have called for many things and there are many different people who have lots of different views,” he said.
“As soon as we have made decisions, as soon as advice is finalised to me, we will be before you again and in detail, trying to explain each and every step that we may need to take.”
Premier Andrews said the state was at a crucial point in its response to the outbreak.
“Wednesday midnight actually marked the halfway mark of this six-week lockdown,” he said.
“It is clear to all of us that these numbers are still far too high.
“The big question for next few days is are these rules enough? Should we be doing more?”
Premier Andrews said he had a discussion with the Prime Minister on Thursday night and there was ‘complete acknowledgment” that there would be no economic recovery until Victoria dealt with the public health challenge.
“It is incredibly difficult, in fact it’s almost impossible for us to see businesses recover and survive, unless and until we get these numbers down,” he said.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMikwFodHRwczovL3d3dy5uZXdzLmNvbS5hdS9uYXRpb25hbC92aWN0b3JpYS9jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy12aWN0b3JpYS1zaG9ja2luZy10b2xsLW9mLXN0YXRlcy1tb3N0LWRlYWRseS13ZWVrL25ld3Mtc3RvcnkvMDZiYjg5ZTIwMjY5M2YwZjc1MmFkNWJlNDYzZTA1NmHSAZMBaHR0cHM6Ly9hbXAubmV3cy5jb20uYXUvbmF0aW9uYWwvdmljdG9yaWEvY29yb25hdmlydXMtdmljdG9yaWEtc2hvY2tpbmctdG9sbC1vZi1zdGF0ZXMtbW9zdC1kZWFkbHktd2Vlay9uZXdzLXN0b3J5LzA2YmI4OWUyMDI2OTNmMGY3NTJhZDViZTQ2M2UwNTZh?oc=5
2020-07-31 21:17:50Z
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