Peter Gutwein has declared victory after calling a snap election a year ahead of schedule, but the results are far from what Tasmania's Premier was banking on when he walked into Government House all those weeks ago.
Mr Gutwein was hoping popularity as the state's guardian throughout the coronavirus pandemic would translate into votes at the ballot box when he made the decision to go to the polls.
After watching incumbent state governments be convincingly returned to power in mainland states — most recently in Western Australia where the Labor government headed by Mark McGowan virtually annihilated the Liberal opposition — the temptation to test the Tasmanian electorate was clearly strong.
And in a way, Mr Gutwein's popularity held up.
Mr Gutwein topped the poll in the northern seat of Bass with more than 29,000 first preference votes — that's almost double what he recorded in 2018, and if he does end up securing a majority that will be an historic feat for a Liberal leader.
But his personal popularity has not translated into a boost for the Liberals in general — across the board there's been a slight swing against the party.
Tasmanians instead have elected a House of Assembly similar to the one chosen three years ago, when 13 Liberals, 10 Labor MPs and two Greens arrived in the chamber.
At least 12 Liberals will fill out the benches this time around, alongside at least seven but likely nine Labor MPs and two Greens. At least one independent is also expected in Clark.
Who takes up the fifth seat is still being battled out. It could go to the Liberals, but it's possible it could go elsewhere, too.
This election the line between minority and majority government is razor thin — it'll go down to the last seat in the last electorate.
After declaring he would refuse to lead a minority government, Mr Gutwein's leadership is on the line too.
And the results in Braddon may throw up some headaches for the Liberals.
Senior government minister Roger Jaensch looks like he may be ousted by former minister Adam Brooks, who's been making headlines — that's something the Premier will need to address.
The Greens will be relieved by the swing back towards them after their horror result in 2018, with Bass candidate Jack Davenport still in the hunt to reclaim the seat the party lost three years ago — although he's likely to be beaten to it by Labor's Janie Finlay.
ABC News: Luke Bowden
)Labor will be less pleased.
After their popular vote winner Scott Bacon resigned during the last term of Parliament, the party's been unable to hold onto his vote and that's meant a more than four per cent swing against them statewide — attributable to the collapse of Labor's vote in Clark.
The Clark result though is probably less about the Labor Party — although the messy candidate dramas early in the campaign probably played a part — and more about who else was on the ticket.
ABC News: Luke Bowden
)Many of the same voters who backed Scott Bacon would also have backed independent Kristie Johnston when she ran as mayor for the Glenorchy City Council.
She's a popular mayor with name recognition, and those voters have likely stayed loyal.
Independent Sue Hickey's office is also in the Glenorchy area, and she would have snagged some of Mr Bacon's voters too, but after a roller-coaster three years as Tasmania's speaker, Ms Hickey's time in Parliament appears likely to have come to an end.
The final make-up of Tasmania's Parliament will take a while to shake out yet, but there's a clear lesson in this election for anyone tempted in future to gamble on an early poll — think twice.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMibWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIxLTA1LTAyL3Rhc21hbmlhLWVsZWN0aW9uLTIwMjEtcGV0ZXItZ3V0d2Vpbi1saWJlcmFsLXJlc3VsdC1hbmFseXNpcy8xMDAwOTk3NDjSAShodHRwczovL2FtcC5hYmMubmV0LmF1L2FydGljbGUvMTAwMDk5NzQ4?oc=5
2021-05-01 20:33:43Z
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