As Australians prepare to spend Christmas Day with loved ones or at religious services, experts fear the mass movement of people is a super-spreading event waiting to happen.
Key points:
- Oversees events, such as Thanksgiving in the US, caused a spike in cases due to holiday travel
- There are similar fears COVID-19 will spread within the community after Christmas gatherings
- Experts advise limiting guests, avoiding share plates and, if you must shop, go when it's quiet
The danger is particularly high in Sydney, where a coronavirus cluster on the Northern Beaches has grown to 83 cases.
Infectious diseases epidemiologist at the University of Sydney, Heather Gidding said Christmas Day posed a danger due to lots of people coming together from widespread parts of cities and from different families, which could lead to the unwitting spread of the disease.
"It's going to be a very different Christmas unfortunately," Associate Professor Gidding said.
"No touching and hugging and kissing, which we'd all love to do.
"But unfortunately that would certainly be something that could easily lead to the spread, if someone was infectious."
Professor of Global Biosecurity at the University of NSW's Kirby Institute, Raina McIntyre, said the timing of Christmas and New Year's Eve a week later was a perfect storm for seeding.
"If there is still community transmission going on, and some of those people haven't been detected and they go to a Christmas celebration, they will infect on average three people each," she said.
Professor McIntyre said up to half of all people infected with COVID-19 were asymptomatic, so even if they thought they were doing the right thing, they could be passing on the virus.
"So people who pick up the infection on Christmas Day, most of them will be infectious on New Year's Eve," she said,
Senior research fellow and epidemiologist at the Australian National University, Meru Sheel, said the United States offered an example of the dangers of such widespread movement around significant events.
"Following Thanksgiving there was a big spike in cases due to the holiday movement," she said.
How will the experts spend Christmas Day?
All the experts the ABC spoke to have modified their Christmas plans to ensure they are COVID safe.
Professor McIntyre said she would be sticking to 10 guests at home, hosted in a flowing indoor/outdoor space.
"I'll have all the windows and doors open and letting plenty of fresh air in and have a couple of air purifiers running as well," she said.
She will ask all attendees to wear a mask, except when eating or drinking, to reduce the chance of aerosol transmission.
"I also asked people a month ago, and reminded them again last week, to please avoid any mass gatherings or crowded settings in the two weeks leading up to Christmas, so that they pose … a lot less of a risk to other people at the event," she said.
Dr Sheel said she would celebrate Christmas in a "low-key" way this year, with her brother and two close friends.
"It's a small group of people that I see regularly so not a wider group of people."
Associate Professor Gidding said border closures and other public health orders had forced her plans to change.
"My sister-in-law was coming up from Melbourne, so she's not coming now," she said.
"We were going to visit some family members in aged care. We're not going to do that now, at least for the for the time being, and we will probably need to break up our our Christmas Day gathering into a couple of groups and not have everybody catch up [at once]."
Avoid the chip bowl
Associate Professor Gidding said it was "too early to tell if we haven't nailed this thing on the head" and it was therefore wise to plan the day based on current recommendations of 10 visitors per home.
She also advised people to avoid sharing serving utensil and plates of food and instead offer individual servings.
She said there was a "small risk" of passing the virus during the giving and receiving of presents and suggested wiping down the wrapping paper before giving gifts.
The experts also advised against crowding around dining tables and advised allowing guests to move freely and eat wherever they could find space, preferably outdoors.
Christmas religious services also pose a risk to worshippers, prompting some places of worship to go online or outdoors.
For those that continue to offer indoor services, there is a limit of 300 worshippers and they must adhere to the one person per four square metre rule.
Professor McIntyre said Christmas Day services would be a "big risk" unless strong restrictions remained in place, particularly around singing and crowd numbers.
Dr Sheel said it should be up to individuals as to whether they attended services in person. But she advised hand sanitiser and masks should be used with strict social distancing.
"It's an important religious day in a particularly tough year and so I think that it's going to be important for people to feel happy, as well, and do the best practice for them," Professor McIntyre said.
Is a trip to the fish markets safe?
There have been a few COVID-19 outbreaks — including the first one in Wuhan — linked to seafood markets, and some reports of frozen seafood and other frozen products being contaminated with coronavirus.
This created a "slight concern", according to Professor McIntyre, however she said most fish markets had both indoor and outdoor areas and were generally well ventilated.
Associate Professor Gidding said people who worked in fish markets should protect themselves and use good handwashing practices, while market shoppers should maintain social distancing and wear a mask.
Sydney Fish Markets, which is conducting its 36-hour seafood marathon for the 25th Christmas, said it expected visitor numbers to be lower this year.
Its website said it was working with NSW Police and NSW Health to implement a COVID-safe plan which included a single point of entry, QR code registration and temperature testing.
The experts advised to avoid last-minute gift shopping crowds, if at all possible, otherwise go in off-peak times and chose outdoor shopping areas rather than mega malls.
Professor McIntyre advised shoppers "don't hang around longer than you need to" and buy Christmas groceries online.
Given all the precautions required, would it be better if people just cancel Christmas this year, or celebrate some time next year?
"Wouldn't it be good to just say, 'Look, let's just delay it until things calm down'," Associate Professor Gidding said.
"That would probably the best thing to do, but you know, it is when it is and we just have to try and be as careful as we can and follow the advice of [health authorities]."
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMicGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIwLTEyLTIyL2NvdmlkLTE5LWNocmlzdG1hcy1jb3VsZC1zcGFyay1tYXNzLXNwcmVhZGluZy1ldmVudC1leHBlcnRzLWZlYXIvMTMwMDQ2NDTSASdodHRwczovL2FtcC5hYmMubmV0LmF1L2FydGljbGUvMTMwMDQ2NDQ?oc=5
2020-12-21 19:18:00Z
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