If northern beaches coronavirus cluster spreads across Sydney, Christmas could be cancelled - ABC News

If Sydney's coronavirus cluster spreads beyond the northern beaches, there could be dire consequences for Christmas celebrations.

Key points:

• There have been dozens of COVID-19 infections linked to the Avalon cluster
• Social distancing restrictions for Christmas will be reassessed on Wednesday
• Authorities are analysing the cluster to see if it has spread beyond Sydney's northern beaches

That's the message from leading epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws who has been analysing the pandemic and this latest outbreak closely.

The Avalon cluster has already swollen to 83 cases, but so far remains confined to a compact geographical area about 40 kilometres from the Sydney CBD.

Social distancing restrictions in the Harbour City have been tightened since the outbreak was first discovered last week, and will be reassessed on Wednesday.

Catch up on the main COVID-19 news from December 21 with our coronavirus blog.

Authorities are monitoring the situation "hourly" and, according to Professor McLaws, will be particularly concerned if infections spread to other areas of Sydney.

"We need to know if people are infected across several common sources within one or two incubation periods that last about a week each," she said.

"If that's the case, that's potentially very controllable and you can track all those people.

"If that's not the case, then the horse may have already bolted if the greater community has begun seeding and creating secondary generations."

Epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws says not knowing the source case is a problem.(Supplied: UNSW)

So far, all cases have been traced to the Avalon cluster.

While the initial source of the infections remains under investigation, NSW Health believes the first seeding event was at the Avalon RSL on December 11.

Restrictions for those in the northern beaches local government area are the most severe.

People in that area have been told not to leave their homes unless they qualify for one of four key reasons:

• Shopping for food and other essential goods and services
• Travel for work or education
• Exercise
• Medical or compassionate grounds

In other parts of Greater Sydney, the Blue Mountains and Central Coast, gatherings in homes are limited to 10 people.

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However, Premier Gladys Berejiklian has warned people to cancel all their non-essential plans.

"I appreciate how frustrating it is, and I would love to be able to tell everybody today what Christmas might look like in New South Wales or the northern beaches," she said.

"But we're not in a position to do that yet."

Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant says there are concerns over further transmissions.(AAP: Dan Himbrechts)

NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said authorities would be keeping a close eye on the cluster to see if it had spread.

"What we're concerned about is we've had seeding events where people have gone from being exposed in the northern beaches and gone back to other parts of the CBD, south-eastern Sydney, the broader northern Sydney area, Penrith," she said.

"So what we're interested in is making sure that we don't see any further transmission that is not linked exactly to the Avalon cluster."

Subsequent cases linked to the Avalon cluster have emerged at the Salon for Hair in Turramurra, the Rose of Australia in Erskineville and a workplace situated in CBD.

A linked case also travelled to the Central Coast.

The Salon for Hair in Turramurra has been linked to give infections.(ABC News: Ursula Malone)

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Professor McLaws, who has helped advise the World Health Organization on the pandemic, said people should approach the holiday period with caution, regardless of the restrictions.

Genomic testing has linked the Avalon cluster to a strain of the virus in the United States, but how it came to be spread on the northern beaches remains a mystery.

"It's risky without us knowing about the source case and confirmation on who has escaped the hot zone before the lockdown on Saturday and if they've been tested," Professor McLaws said.

"If that is confirmed, then there is a chance [restrictions could be eased]."

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https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiY2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIwLTEyLTIyL25zdy1jb25jZXJucy1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1zcHJlYWQtcmVhY2gtYWNyb3NzLXN5ZG5leS8xMzAwNDQyNtIBJ2h0dHBzOi8vYW1wLmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvYXJ0aWNsZS8xMzAwNDQyNg?oc=5

2020-12-21 13:04:00Z
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