Epidemiologist Nancy Baxter says Sydney lockdown to last ‘at least a month’ more - NEWS.com.au

Millions of Greater Sydney residents could remain in lockdown for “at least a month”, according to a leading clinical epidemiologist.

Nancy Baxter, a Canadian researcher who is the head of the Melbourne School of Population of Population and Global Health., told the Today Show on Tuesday health authorities had gone hard too late, and a prolonged lockdown was likely.

The state recorded 98 cases on Monday, of which 20 were infectious in the community.

“If what they’re doing is not working, they have to start doing something different … They took too long to decide to do something different,” she said.

Professor Baxter said while Sydney had “controlled things” now that it had cracked down, it would take a while for the tough restrictions to drive the number of people infectious down.

“It’s like a bushfire right? If you leave some embers, they’re going to start into flames,” she said.

“And that’s what happens if you don’t kind of really drive the numbers down before you open up.

“Overall, the numbers don’t need to be zero, they don’t actually need to be close to zero, but it is that number of people who were out in the community when they were infectious … that’s the number that needs to get to zero.

“They’re pretty far from that. So how long is a lockdown going to last? I don’t know, but I would say we’re looking more like a month than a week.”

Professor Baxter said Melbourne’s lockdown, which is set to be extended on Tuesday, would likely last for “at least five to seven days” more.

Melbourne recorded 16 new cases of Covid-19 on Monday, and Premier Dan Andrews said authorities would hold a meeting to determine how long to extend the lockdown for.

“Whether further lockdowns are needed is going to depend on the case numbers in the next week,” Professor Baxter said.

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2021-07-19 22:35:56Z
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