As Scott Morrison jets off for an actual, real-life, face-to-face gathering of world leaders at the G7 summit in Cornwall, he's completed a remarkable transformation in his foreign policy approach.
The Prime Minister's evolution from globalism sceptic to champion of international cooperation has occurred gradually over the past 18 months. This evolution hasn't had as much to do with the pandemic as it has with Australia's deteriorating relationship with China and the end of the Trump era in the United States. Morrison completed the journey yesterday, during a speech in Perth aimed at framing his agenda for the week ahead.
To understand the significance of the Prime Minister's shift on globalism, we need to go back to October 2019.
Just days after returning from the US, where he had been feted with a bells-and-whistles state dinner at the White House and even appeared alongside Trump at what looked very much like a campaign rally in Ohio, Morrison delivered a major speech at the Lowy Institute.
It became known as the "negative globalism" speech, which many viewed as Morrison's attempt at "Trump-ism". It was all about the power and importance of the state.
In the speech, which had not been run past the Department of Foreign Affairs, Morrison warned of "negative globalism that coercively seeks to impose a mandate from an often-ill-defined borderless global community.
And worse still, an unaccountable internationalist bureaucracy." He specifically said it "does not serve our national interests when international institutions demand conformity rather than independent cooperation".
The sound of 'positive globalism'
Fast forward to yesterday's speech in Perth and the Prime Minister is now all in favour of strengthening powers and requiring conformity — at least for some global institutions.
Most notably, Morrison wants a properly functioning World Trade Organisation to hold to account those who engage in "bad behaviour". He didn't name China as the main offender here — he didn't have to. Everyone knows Australia has been at the receiving end of China's aggressive trade tactics for the past 18 months.
"Where there are no consequences for coercive behaviour," Morrison said, "there is little incentive for restraint".
The Prime Minister also wants the World Health Organisation strengthened, repeating his call for "enhanced surveillance and pandemic response powers", which so angered China last year. He supports greater cooperation on cyber security and the digital economy. He sees a bigger role for the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank as vehicles for positive change in the region.
It sounded very much like "positive globalism" and the polar opposite of Trump's retreat from international cooperation.
For Morrison's part, this shift has been driven by necessity. "Things have changed", he bluntly declared yesterday. "The simple reality is that Australia's strategic environment has changed significantly over recent years."
Australia needs back-up. It needs friends. In standing up to Beijing, Australia needs well-functioning global institutions, and it needs the world's great democracies to cooperate through groupings like the G7 and the "Quad".
This whole-hearted embrace of cooperative globalism and "like minded" alliances has been driven by China's behaviour and enabled by the dramatic shift in the White House from an isolationist to an internationalist.
Echoing Trump on this stuff was always an odd position for the leader of a country that relies so heavily on engagement with the world.
Then there's the climate change problem
There's just one problem with Australia preaching the virtues of enhanced global collaboration: its stance on the great global challenge of climate change.
Each of the G7 member nations has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, some even earlier. Australia has not. The Prime Minister repeated his line yesterday that "it's not about if or when", but rather the "how" to achieve net-zero.
G7 leaders, by contrast, are very much focused on the "if" and "when". In particular, the US President and the British Prime Minister are on a mission to encourage greater global ambition on climate targets.
The differences over climate change, however, are unlikely to overshadow the focus on strengthening partnerships at this G7 gathering.
Reuters: Neil Hall
)When Morrison and Joe Biden hold their first face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of the summit, the two leaders are likely to emphasise areas of cooperation rather than disagreement.
Even when they don't see eye-to-eye on everything (think Abbott-Obama, Turnbull-Trump), Australian and American leaders usually put on a good show of camaraderie. Emphasising the strength of the alliance takes priority over policy differences.
Likewise, Boris Johnson won't want disagreement over climate change to get in the way of championing what's likely to be his first post-Brexit trade deal. The two leaders are due to meet back in London after the G7, where the UK-Australia free trade agreement will be signed, pending the outcome of last-minute negotiations.
The British PM is keen to demonstrate his country is open for business and still an attractive trade destination after its divorce from the European Union. Australia, too, is looking for any new trade opportunities as China closes doors.
The real debate over Australia's climate policy will come in the lead-up to the Glasgow climate conference in November. Scott Morrison has promised to announce a long-term emissions strategy (which could be a commitment to net-zero by 2050) closer to that date.
When he returns home from the G7 trip next week, the Prime Minister will have a fortnight of isolation to consider his position. As with foreign policy, the Coalition's climate policy is also evolving.
David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.
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2021-06-09 19:00:00Z
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