2022 seems like a distant dream.
Will it be a pandemic-free paradise? Will a fully vaccinated Australian population roam the globe once more?
Will tourists and migrants land on our shores? And when is my jab turning up?
The federal government relies on its best economic boffins over at Treasury to have a crack at how the next few years are going to pan out, so it can shape its budget around it.
Last month's federal budget contained the bare bones of those assumptions, but the economists who made them have now been grilled at Senate Estimates for a bit more detail on just what they are expecting.
It is all a best guess — and in the context of a global pandemic, any guess at all comes with plenty of caveats.
One jab or two by 2022?
The budget assumed "a population-wide vaccination program is likely to be in place by the end of 2021".
Which, frustratingly, could really be interpreted a few different ways.
Treasury now says that means they expect every Australian will likely be offered two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the year.
That is based primarily on advice from the Chief Medical Officer, Professor Paul Kelly.
And the federal government has been clear that while that assumption is in the budget, it is not a formal target — but they do "hope" it will be achieved.
There are also still questions around whether or not that will include people under 16 years of age. No vaccine has been approved for use in Australia in children under 16 as yet.
ABC News: Ian Cutmore
)Treasury's economists were pushed during Senate Estimates on how a quicker or slower vaccine rollout might impact the economy.
And interestingly, Treasury boss Steven Kennedy said he was only worried about how vaccines helped prevent more lockdowns.
When will the lockdowns end?
Look away, Melbourne.
The budget suggested "localised outbreaks of COVID-19 are assumed to occur but are effectively contained".
Treasury officials now say that translates to at least a few more lockdowns that look a lot like what Victoria is going through now.
That is, they will last up to a week and primarily affect a metropolitan area (although, the current Victorian situation affects the whole state).
Treasury is planning for about six lockdowns over the rest of this year. But officials insist that number has only been settled on because they had to settle on something.
Lockdowns are a huge concern to Treasury because of the massive hit to the economy.
But, pleasingly, the end is near(ish).
Treasury says there should be no more after the end of this year. The end of lockdowns will also coincide with the international border starting to reopen.
Bursting the bubbles — how international travel might return (beyond New Zealand)
Lots of people, particularly those who run airlines, would love to know when international travel is coming back.
That means returning for good, and to destinations a little more exotic than Auckland (no offence New Zealand).
The budget figured that "inbound and outbound international travel is expected to remain low through to mid-2022".
Low is not zero — there will be a small, slow increase in the capacity to travel abroad before mid-next year.
But there is a split there between when the Australian population is assumed to be fully vaccinated (at the end of 2021) and when the borders start to significantly reopen (mid-next year).
There had been a hope expressed by some, particularly in the travel industry, that a vaccinated population would mean borders can reopen.
Dr Kennedy said unfortunately that was not the advice they were getting.
They point to COVID-19 variants, in particular, as a significant concern.
And even when borders do begin reopening, it will not be a snap back to normal.
"Even once they open, we don't expect the numbers to bounce back to previous flows immediately — so the opening is a gradual opening, even beyond June 2022," Dr Kennedy said.
What about migrants? When will people start moving here again?
The budget assumed that some people would start to move to Australia again, perhaps as soon as later this year.
They would mostly be international students, and those plans are already starting to be drawn up.
But those numbers would be tiny compared to what Australia normally takes in.
Net overseas migration — the number of people Australia gains, compared to what is loses abroad — was just short of 200,000 last financial year.
This year (ending June 30), it is expected to plummet to minus 97,000. That is, we will lose nearly 100,000 more people overseas than we gain.
It will only recover slightly, to minus 77,000 next year.
But after a slow start, it will rebound pretty quickly. The budget reckons it will bounce back to 235,000 by 2024-25.
During Senate Estimates, Labor senator Kristina Keneally questioned whether that was a bit optimistic.
"We're going to go from a very low — almost no population growth, to a rapid turnaround," she noted.
Treasury's Victoria Anderson said officials were expecting there would be some demand to get to Australia, once it is possible.
Maybe the rest of the world misses us, too.
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2021-06-01 20:25:55Z
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